Spain is faced with an unprecedented level of political complexity since the restoration of democracy.
The government of Pedro Sanchez has the support of a parliamentary majority that could reach up to 179 seats, heavily dependent on Junts per Catalunya.
The People's Party controls eleven autonomous regions, alone or in coalition, which could lead to a powerful territorial opposition block.
Amnesty law is a key vector in the current legislative cycle, with Catalan independents holding much sway.
Political negotiations are taking on a tone of magical realism, incorporating international mediators and the European Commission.
The People's Party will seek to destabilize the government in the 2024 European elections.
These elections will set the pace for Spanish politics during the first half of 2024, together with regional elections in Galicia and the Basque Country.
Conclusion: Although 2024 will be a complex political year for Spain, it will not necessarily be a lost year. The European elections and the US presidential elections in November will be key.