- In 2003, the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq led to chaos instead of a pluralistic regime.
- The collapse of Bashar Al-Assad in 2023, under pressure from nationalist Islamists, could also lead to devastating disorders.
- The weakened Iranian regime is seeking an agreement with its main rival, Saudi Arabia.
- Israel must respect territorial sovereignty and avoid provocative actions.
- The Syrian Islamists and their Turkish sponsor must respect the complexity of the religious and ethnic mosaic in Syria.
Conclusion: Realism suggests that this approach could provide what force cannot guarantee in the long term: peace.