The Iranian regime lost both the president of the Islamic Republic and a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Ebrahim Raïssi, who died in a helicopter crash, was a faithful follower of the line imposed by Khamenei and represented the ultra-conservative transformation of the Islamic Republic.
Raïssi's mandate was mainly marked by the violent repression of the protest movement.
High abstention in recent elections shows the growing gap between frustrated Iranian society and the regime.
The regime firmly maintains its hardline stance and its internal mechanisms only allow for a self-reproduction from which Iranians feel excluded.
The regime is not free from problems, such as internal terrorism or external attacks, and an atmosphere of unpredictability increases the risk of misinterpretation.
Internal and external pressure can push Iran into seeking nuclear weapons, which in turn increases the risk of nuclear proliferation in the region.
Conclusion: The signs point to a continuation of the chasm between Iran's regime and its citizens, and holding onto its hardline stance will only increase internal and regional instability.