Moscow's hybrid war against Europe is becoming increasingly physical, now incorporating drones and threats against critical infrastructure.
The drone shot down over Lithuania represents a ramping up of pressure from Putin.
This incursion comes in the context of the Russian elections, with Putin seeking to project strength and legitimacy amid the continuing human and economic cost of the war in Ukraine.
There are concerns that Putin is willing to take bigger risks against the West, even testing NATO solidarity by attacking a member country.
The Baltic is the ideal stage to provoke divisions and test Western response times.
The European Union has the economic and technological capacity to deter Moscow, but it needs political will and a solid investment in security.
Conclusion: Moscow's provocative actions are escalating, and the European Union will need to demonstrate both political will and strength to deter future aggression attempts.